Welcome to Grupo Spurrier
Grupo Spurrier is the leading company in the provision of strategic information on economic and political issues regarding Ecuador, which we monitor through Weekly Analysis and Análisis Semanal. We specialize in economic research, competition advice, market research, business plans, and workshops in economic scenarios and regulatory changes.
Weekly Analysis Briefs
WA-2026-33: NON-OIL EXPORTS DECLINE
Ecuador’s foreign trade is beginning to lose momentum. In the first half of the year [1H 2026], non-oil exports grew by just 1.1% in value, despite a 3.8% increase in volume. In addition, they have already accumulated two consecutive months of yoy contraction: -2.2% in May and -2.9% in June. The main drag is cacao, whose sharp price correction has erased a significant portion of the growth generated by shrimp, mining and bananas. At the same time, the external environment is rapidly being reshaped. U.S. tariff policy is changing competitive advantages among suppliers, the Agreement of Reciprocal Trade (ART) opens opportunities for Ecuadoran products, and China is gaining importance as a destination. However, new supply-side risks are emerging: Fusarium in bananas, El Niño, lower fishing catches and the threat of new power outages. Is Ecuador entering a phase of export deceleration? Which products will be able to offset the sharp correction in cacao? Who gains and who loses under the new tariff landscape? Can the ART change our position vis-à-vis competitors such as Colombia and India? And how much could Fusarium, El Niño and power outages affect export performance in the coming months?
WA-2026-32: DANGERS AHEAD
The dry season begins in September, threatening to be stronger than usual due to the presence of a particularly severe El Niño phenomenon. The government reiterated its warning to industries that starting December 15, it will no longer guarantee their electricity supply. A pessimistic outcome of this situation would seriously affect economic performance from 4Q2026 onwards. For 2026, there is a paradox: while Central Bank research points to growth no greater than 2% yoy in the first half of the year, there is a significant increase in electricity consumption and sales, with the automotive sector standing out. What are the scenarios for the impact of El Niño? Why is electricity consumption expanding so much? Which industries have increased their sales the most? How did interest rates perform in July? Why is the trade surplus so high? What short-term effects would De La Espriella's inauguration have for Ecuador? Which measure by President Trump incentivizes migrants to send their savings to Ecuador? In this issue, we update our review of the economy's performance based on indicators available as of the end of July. WA#27 contains the review with indicators available at the end of June.
WA-2026-31: THE END OF DECLINING INTEREST RATES?
The Government's Ecuador 2040 Agenda proposes reviewing the interest rate framework, expanding the range of collateral accepted by the financial system, and modernizing banking regulation. At the same time, the National Assembly is debating amendments to the Monetary and Financial Code that would establish an inclusion rate to expand access to credit and modify banks' participation in the capital market. As of June 2026, the financial system continues to post strong growth in deposits and lending, supporting economic activity. However, the trade surplus and remittances are beginning to lose momentum, while international interest rates remain elevated. In July, the lending rate increased for the first time in a year, potentially marking the end of the downward cycle in domestic interest rates. Is the decline in interest rates coming to an end? Will the inclusion rate expand access to credit or preserve the current distortions? What implications will greater bank participation in the capital market have? How did the banking system manage to increase profitability despite narrower financial margins?
WA-2026-30: SOLUTIONS REMAIN ELUSIVE
The Esmeraldas Refinery has partially resumed production, and Minister Reimberg has alleged sabotage. However, fuel production remains far from sufficient to meet domestic demand, making imports—particularly diesel and LPG—necessary. How much of each fuel do we produce, and what is domestic demand? The wars in Ukraine and Iran continue to roil global oil and fuel markets. How have they affected Ecuador's crude oil exports and fuel imports? The President modified the price adjustment formula for subsidized fuels, and as a result, prices fell by 1.5% on July 12. Looking ahead, what impact will the new adjustment mechanism have on fuel prices? How close are the prices of Extra gasoline and ethanol-blended gasoline to international market prices? Are there any projects underway to improve refining capacity?
WA-2026-29: IN PURSUIT OF BETTER SUPERVISION
A permanent concern of the IMF has been to eliminate spaces for regulatory arbitrage between cooperatives and banks. Between December 2024 and May 2025, the government issued key new regulations to improve the corporate governance and provisioning frameworks of cooperatives. In April, the IMF warned that "vulnerabilities persist in part of the cooperative sector due to poor asset quality, low capital levels, and low or negative earnings." The gross portfolio of cooperatives stopped shrinking in July 2025, but its expansion has been modest, closing May 2026 with barely 4.0% yoy. It is evident that not all the abundant liquidity captured by cooperatives and mutuals has been transformed into new credit. What are the government's commitments to the IMF to strengthen the cooperative sector? What to expect from the evolution of credit? The troubled portfolio? Are there enough provisions? How is the cooperative consolidation process progressing? Learn about the risk rating and the Camel.
WA-2026-28: CONSTRUCTION LEADS GROWTH
The construction industry expanded very strongly in the first quarter, while bank credit stimulated consumption and investment. BCE indicators suggest that the expansion of the economy continued during the first quarter, confirming the forecast of 2.5% growth this year. April import data confirm that imports of construction inputs and transport capital goods remain strong, pointing to higher investment in the second half of the year. In the first quarter, which industries recorded the strongest growth? How did exports perform? Is the increase in foreign investment genuine? Which food industries posted the strongest performance? In the second half relative to the first, will credit availability remain the same? Will household consumption expand more or less? Will growth be stronger or weaker? In this issue we review quarterly growth in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q2026). Our previous growth outlook was WA 2026#16, containing our forecast for 2026.